The Mumble
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The Mumble: time to look at the alternatives
Publish date | 14 June 2013
The recent rise in rates has made investors skittish about buying new benchmark issues. Many SSA borrowers are of course well ahead of their funding programmes. But for those who are not, and for those that are looking for arbitrage, now could be a good time to look at other options.
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The Mumble: The benefits of the rates sell-off
Publish date | 07 June 2013
With sentiment turning against new issues this week after a prolonged rates sell-off, the benefit of front-loading issuance programmes is there for all to see. There has been nothing as drastic as markets shutting down to contend with, but a spate of weak deals this week has proven that the relentless bid that had sustained the new issue market for over six months was not indefatigable.
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The Mumble: Italy leaves Spain in the dust
Publish date | 31 May 2013
Italy is fast putting its troubles behind it and instead of being a hot favourite for a eurozone bailout — a very real prospect this time last year — it could well argue that it’s now in the semi-core club rather than the periphery, in market access terms at least. Spain should start taking notes.
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The Mumble: Bernanke's bons mots
Publish date | 24 May 2013
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments on Wednesday about slowing down the rate of quantitative easing were the right comments, at the right time.
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The Mumble: It’s time for some new blood in the Kangaroo market
Publish date | 17 May 2013
Australian investors have a deserved reputation for being fussier about what they buy than their European counterparts — there’s a reason that the Kangaroo market has traditionally been dominated by the cream of the SSA crop. However, things are starting to change.
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The Mumble: Come on Greece, what are you waiting for?
Publish date | 10 May 2013
Portugal, whose unemployment rate hit a euro ere high if 17.7% in the last quarter, hauled in €10.2bn of orders for a 10 year deal this week. Spain, whose economy can hardly be described as in robust health, is most likely about to sell a 10 year at yields closer to 4% than 5%. Where next can investors turn to now for yield? Well, Greece of course.
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The Mumble: Do hard times lay ahead for SSA bankers?
Publish date | 03 May 2013
Market conditions seem ripe for printing deals and SSA bankers are urging borrowers to come to the market. But it is starting to look desperate on origination desks as well funded issuers which are growing ever more used to a market where they can pick and choose their moment to borrow mean the deal pipeline is miniscule.
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The Mumble: Why it doesn’t matter what the Bundesbank thinks about OMT
Publish date | 26 April 2013
Since the ECB unveiled the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) scheme last autumn, peripheral bond yields have enjoyed a spectacular rally and the spectre of an Italian or Spanish bailout has receded. The prospect of earning decent returns from those countries’ bonds is receding at a similar rate. That the Bundesbank has raised objections to the OMT scheme should not reverse that trend.
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The Mumble: Would a Slovenian bailout be the smoothest yet?
Publish date | 19 April 2013
It’s like Spain, only smaller. Slovenia is the latest country to be dragged into the whirlpool of bailout speculation. But the SSA market is unconcerned. In fact, so is Slovenia it seems. The borrower is embarking on a roadshow with a view to issuing a benchmark.
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The Mumble: beware the hangover
Publish date | 12 April 2013
Nearly three years on from the start of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and investors are still largely driven by fear, but at least now that fear is showing its face in the mega book sizes on this week’s SSA deals. Take one announcement from the Bank of Japan and investors pile wholesale into any issue going in a desperate attempt to get in ahead of the anticipated flood of Japanese buying.
